The dollar has been keeping solid in the past few sessions and at the close last week, EUR/USD buyers were dealt a blow as sellers pushed price back under the 1.0900 mark. What was more important though, was the fact that the weekly close fell back under its 100-week moving average (red line):
After a hint of a triple top pattern above 1.1000 in recent weeks, buyers are evidently losing momentum now and the technical development above is particularly noteworthy.
This puts sellers back in control and could stay poised in search of a push towards 1.0800 next.
As for buyers, there is work to do in order to try and reclaim back some technical momentum. Getting above the 100-week moving average is now one thing but they would have to hold a weekly close above that to be more confident.
Adding to the challenge now is also resistance layers at 1.0937 (100-hour moving average), 1.0985 (200-hour moving average), and the 1.1000 mark itself - where there should be notable interest and offers lined up.
As for the downside outlook, the 1.0800 mark is going to be a critical one with the 100-day moving average also sitting at the level currently. That will make for a real interesting test over the next few sessions if we do get any swings in the dollar to start the week.
I'm not a big fan of the dollar index but there is an interesting technical observation:
In many ways, this is basically a flip on the EUR/USD chart. But you can see how the dollar has been holding near 101.00 and may be poised for a break higher after breaching key trendline resistance (white line). That said, there is also still the 100-day moving average (red line) to provide a key test for dollar bulls for now.