ABN AMRO with some thoughts on the Fed:
- Expected to cut rates starting in September 2024
- Recent macro data indicate a cooling economy, with lower consumption as excess savings are depleted.
- But believes household balance sheets and accommodative financial conditions are expected to provide a floor for economic activity, preventing a deeper recession.
- Reasons for expecting cuts in September is continued disinflation, a normalizing labour market and evidence of an economic slowdown in the US.
- Think as a result the Fed will cut rates more than what markets are currently anticipating