A note from Goldman Sachs, this from late last week. Analsysts at the firm are looking for a rise to US$3000 by the end of 2025.
GS on rate cuts:
“As an asset that doesn’t offer any yield, it typically becomes less attractive to investors when interest rates are higher, and it’s usually more desirable when rates fall”
On buying of gold by central banks:
- large-scale central bank purchases of gold have rejigged the relationship between interest rates and price levels since 2022
- GS estimates 100 tonnes of physical demand increases gold prices by at least 2.4%
- freezing of Russian central bank assets in 2022 after the invasion of Ukraine have prompted emerging market central bank purchases of gold
GS point out that central banks in developed markets have tended to have relatively high holdings of gold, and with “China, for example, reports to have 5% of its reserves in the metal. Seen that way, some central banks in emerging markets are catching up to their counterparts in developed countries”
GS also cite ETF buying.
