My expectations for Powell's speech are low. It's too early to make a call on the September FOMC so we won't get that. I expect him to push the idea that rates will stay high for longer rather than a U-turn but the market has already moved in that direction with many other Fed officials saying that. The bigger question is whether the market is priced for that? There's been plenty of hawkish talk/worries and if enough traders are priced that way, there could be relief rally.
In any case, the real new information today may come in economic data. The July PCE report is due at the bottom of the hour and expected to show 4.7% y/y growth on the core. That's a market mover and I'll also be closely watching the personal income and spending metrics.
At the same time we als oget advance goods US trade balance and wholesale inventories. Trade could deteriorate further and set up a soft Q3 but with spending shifting to services there's also scope for an upside surprise.
Powell's speech is at 10 am ET and at the same time we get the final UMich survey. It's the second edition and it doesn't usually matter but watch the inflation expectations numbers.