Australian data: Net exports impact on Q1 GDP will be -0.2%

Net exports are expected to detract 0.2% from Q1 GDP , not as much was expected:

• expected -0.6%, prior +1.1%

Current account surplus is AUD $12.3bn

• expected surplus $15bn, prior +$14.1bn

The 'public demand' (investment) component of GDP is expected to contribute +0.2%.

Q1 GDP data is due Wednesday, 7 June 2023 at 11.30am Sydney time, which is 0130 GMT and 9.30pm US Eastern time.

Given the components we have seen so far it appears Q1 GDP will be positive. It all depends on the consumer contribution, we don't get an advance reading on this.

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Still ahead for today is the Reserve Bank of Australia statement due at 2.30pm Sydney time

• 0430 GMT, 0030 US Eastern time

Consensus expectations is for an hold decision but its not a foregone conclusion, this is very much a 'live' meeting.

Previews:

Forecast for a +25bp RBA cash rate increase due to "ongoing inflation and wages concerns"

• ANZ, CBA, NAB & Westpac all expect Reserve Bank of Australia pause at next week's meeting

• ANZ raise its forecast for the RBA terminal rate to 4.35% (from 4.10%)

• National Australia Bank expect a +25bp rate hike from the RBA, but not until August

• Reserve Bank of Australia policy meeting tomorrow - preview

• Bank of America Reserve Bank of Australia preview - expect cash rate to be left unchanged

And Greg has the AUD techs here:

• AUDUSD sets the 50% midpoint as topside resistance...again.

The RBA rate hike cycle so far: