The Australian June Labour Force Survey is due today at 11.30am Sydney time
0130 GMT
9.30pm US Eastern time
Via CBA, preview comments:
- The labour market remains extremely tight but is not tightening further. Indeed, the unemployment rate has been range bound between 3.5-3.7% since November last year. The unemployment rate is a lagging indicator and given the acuity of labour shortages over recent years, there is a logical argument as to why the labour market has so far been resilient despite a slowing economy.
- While there hasn’t been material loosening as yet, signs are emerging that spare capacity is increasing, evidenced by higher underemployment and labour demand is softening from elevated levels. Further, strong population growth means increasing labour supply and more new jobs are required each month to keep the unemployment rate at current levels. This, as well as forecasts for below trend growth form the basis of our view that unemployment will grind higher over time.