Now that warning is out of the way, here are the expected and priors:
(or you could see I've already posted the expected and priors here:
Here is what’s on the economic calendar in Asia today - Australian jobs report
)
Anyway, to repeat:
Australian employment report for January 2022
Employment Change: K expected 0.0K, prior 64.8K
Unemployment Rate: % expected 4.2%, prior 4.2%
Full-Time Employment Change: K prior was 41.5K
Part-Time Employment Change: K prior was 23.3K
Participation Rate: % expected 66.0%, prior was 66.1%
A couple of things to watch for:
- Australia was in the midst of the Omicron outbreak in January. This would have had the impact of making some people abandon the search for a job for the time being. Thus there is a risk the unemployment rate may be below the expected (if you are not looking for a job you are not deemed to be unemployed).
- As a conflicting point, labour demand in Australia is hot (and was hot in January), firms looking to hire looked through the Omicron outbreak and kept advertising, and hiring. Australia's two most populous states of New South Wales and Victoria were still emerging from shutdowns, employers were hiring staff. This poses a risk to the "0.0" expectation for employment change (i.e. to be greater than 0) and also a risk that the unemployment rate will be lower than the expected 4.2%
As for the AUD , its being underpinned by global developments and an RBA lumbering towards less dovish. Figures that are better than expected should provide more support for the currency. Figures worse than expected will provide opportunities for dip buyers.
AUD update:
