This snippet via Westpac, analysts at the Australian bank have boosted their projection for tomorrow January - March economic growth data:
Q1 GDP forecast we have upgraded this to 0.6%qtr, 2.9%yr, marked up from 0.2%qtr previously.
- We see risks in both directions.
- The Q1 expenditure partials today, on balance, point to some upside risks to the 0.6%.
- However, we have tempered this impact – mindful that the Labour Force Survey (LFS) reported hours worked contracted, and contracted sharply, down by -1.2% in the quarter.
- The wedge between a -1.2% fall in hours worked and GDP growth at 0.6% is quite large. That implies a very large increase in “estimated” productivity.
- the hours worked estimate in the National Accounts differs from that in the LFS (it is sourced from a different data set). It is likely that the LFS overstates the decline in hours worked – biased down by an unrepresentative reference period for the January reading, impacted by the holiday period.
- We expect hours worked in the National Accounts to be less weak than the -1.2%, but to what degree is unclear.
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This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here.
- The times in the left-most column are GMT.
- The numbers in the right-most column are the 'prior' (previous month) result.
- The number in the column next to that, where is a number, is the consensus median expected.