Comments from Barclays analysts on equities, a cautious tone.
In brief:
- A more mixed Q3 economy means results should be more mixed too. They could still be enough to help stabilize the market post pull-back, but misses are likely to be punished as lofty ’24 estimates remain intact
- With earnings widely expected to be the last shoe to drop, risk may be tilted to the downside on misses rather than to the upside for beats
The note acknowledges that global EPS revisions and momentum are largely positive so far, but cautions that 2024 estimates look ambitious. Noting that the firms's economists estimate sequentially lower GDP growth ahead.
- Volume/pricing mix won’t get any better, whoch means significant margin expansion is unlikely. More than the Q3 results themselves, it is ’24 guidance that will move markets
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I noted earlier that US stocks continued to party despite the blow out PPI data. CPI is due later today:
