Bitcoin is soaring while gold slumps. The thing about moves of this magnitude is there are always stories about for 'why' this is happening. A fancier term is narrative.

There are often multiple, sometimes even conflicting narratives.

Here's my narrative for why gold is falling. The metal saw its biggest price drop in 3+ years:

  • the strong post-election U.S. dollar is a factor

  • political uncertainty had been supportive, but this has been been removed after the US election, a solid win for Trump

  • Republican majority in Congress is expected, giving Trump a clearer path to push his agendas though
  • Fed rate cuts, and more to come, are supportive for gold - but expectations of future cuts have been trimmed back somewhat

gold outlook 12 November 2024 2