BofA anticipates the European Central Bank (ECB) will implement a 25 basis point (bp) cut to the deposit rate at its September meeting, with a modestly negative impact on the EUR due to unchanged guidance and weaker growth outlook.
Key Points:
Rate Cut Expectation:
- Deposit Rate: Expected to be reduced by 25bp.
- Other Policy Rates: Likely to adjust by 35bp due to the previously announced narrowing of the rate corridor.
Guidance and Statement:
- Assessment: The statement will likely acknowledge that incoming information supports the ECB’s previous inflation outlook but highlights weaker growth.
- New Forecasts: Expected to show lower growth projections, a slight increase in near-term core inflation, and an unchanged medium-term outlook. Inflation is anticipated to approach 2% by the end of 2025.
- Domestic Price Pressures: Expected to be flagged, particularly in relation to high services price inflation.
Forward Guidance:
- Approach: The ECB is likely to maintain its data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach to policy adjustments.
- Risks: There may be a slight dovish tilt given the weakening growth outlook and internal discussions about whether this necessitates faster rate cuts.
Impact on EUR:
- Expectations: A 25bp rate cut is fully anticipated, so a significant market reaction is not expected.
- Risks: There could be modestly negative risks related to the ECB’s guidance on growth concerns.
Conclusion:
BofA predicts a 25bp rate cut by the ECB with no significant change in guidance, leading to a limited impact on the EUR. The focus will remain on the data-dependence of future policy actions, with risks skewed towards a potentially more dovish stance due to weaker growth projections. The EUR's reaction is expected to be contained, reflecting the ECB's consistent approach to data-driven decision-making.
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