• BOJ has no reason to move this week
  • Markets still feeling the jitters from recent banking woes
  • BOJ might find it hard to raise rates this year as economic conditions are still weak
  • There will also be a tough backdrop to raise rates next year

On his last point, he says that if the BOJ were to raise interest rates next year, they will have to do so against a backdrop where the Fed and ECB may start cutting interest rates instead. That could lead to USD/JPY falling to 115 potentially and "it will be a question of whether Japan can tolerate such a rise in the yen".