- Prior was 7.6%
- CPI m/m -0.3% vs -0.1% expected
- Prior m/m reading was +0.1%
- Excluding gasoline +6.3% y/y vs +6.6% prior
- Gasoline prices -9.6% vs -9.2% in July
- Average hourly wages +5.4%
- Energy prices +% vs +28.0% y/y prior
- Food +10.8% vs +7.6% y/y prior
- Shelter costs +6.6% vs +7.0% y/y prior
- Services +5.5% y/y vs +5.7% prior
- Full report
Core measures:
- BOC core 5.8% vs 6.1% prior
- BOC core m/m 0.0% vs +0.5% prior
- Median 4.8% vs 5.0% prior
- Trim 5.2% vs 5.4% prior
- Common 5.7% vs 5.6% expected (5.5% prior)
This is an early sign of cooling inflation from the first central bank to hike. The internals of the report look consistent with the headline, though the uptick in CPI common is notable. On net, there was negative inflation in August and the core was flat. Food is a big problem in Canada and globally though, especially in places where people can't afford to pay more.
The Bank of Canada is widely expected to hike 50 bps on October 26 to lift the rate to 3.75%. From there, we could see the central bank indicate perhaps another 25 bps and then some time on the sidelines.