Canada December retail sales 0.5% versus 0.5% expected

• Prior report -0.1% revised to 0.0%
• Advanced flash estimate +0.5%
• retail sales 0.5% versus 0.5% expected.
• Ex autos -0.6% versus -0.1% expected. Prior month -0.6% revise it to -0.5%
• Ex auto and gas +0.4%
• Retail sales in 2022 increased 8.2% with volume sales up 1.5%
• Sales increased in seven of 11 sales increased in seven of 11 sectors representing 75.1% of retail trade
• Advanced retail sales for January expected at 0.7%. That release will be on March 24, 2023
• New car dealer sales increased by 5.0% which was the largest increase in February 2021
• Gasoline sales fell -5.8% which was the largest decline in retail trade in December. In volume terms sales increase 4.7% as prices fell -13.1% on an unadjusted basis in December leading to the sharp decline. That was the largest monthly decrease in prices since April 2020

The headline data came in as expected. Ex autos was weaker but ex autos and gas was solid at 0.4% thanks to a sharp decline in gasoline prices. The expectations for January in order for a 0.7% increase. Generally speaking the prerelease data is fairly accurate.

The USDCAD is higher after the data as better inflation is driving the move. The pair as will back above the swing ceiling area from late January to February 10 between 1.3467 and 1.34749. The price has been waffling above and below that area over the last four trading days.