- March flash estimate +1.4%
- February flash estimate was -0.5%
- January reading was +3.2% (revised to +3.3%)
- Ex autos +2.1% vs 0.0% expected
- Prior ex autos +2.5%
- Ex autos and gas +1.4% vs +2.4% prior
- Sales up in 6 of 11 subsectors
The Canadian economy re-opened in March after lockdowns in Jan/Feb. The ongoing strength through the lockdowns and signs of further growth in March are positive. Canadians are riding high on a wave of home price appreciation but there is a big risk that some of that reverses.
Details:
- Clothing +15.1%
- Shoes +12.4%
- Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers +5.6% vs +8.9% prior (sixth gain in seven months)
- General merchandise stores -1.2%
- New auto sales -4.6% vs +5.5% prior
- E-commerce sales -23.1% vs -14.4% y/y prior
One worrisome sign is on autos, where sales of new vehicles were down 11.0% compared to Feb 2021; though we will have to wait until March to see if that was lockdown-induced or something more. Inventories are brutally tight and that could be a factor as well.
That ecommerce number doesn't bode well for Amazon.
Inflation is a bit of a factor as volumes were down 0.4% m/m in Feb. CAD is a touch stronger on the headlines but has been beaten up today on the broad USD bid.