- May was -0.8%
- Preliminary June was -0.3%
- Sales down 0.5% in Q2
- Preliminary July +0.6%
- Ex autos +0.3% vs -0.2% expected
- Prior ex-autos -1.3% (revised to -1.2%)
- Ex autos and gasoline +0.4% vs -1.4% prior
These are some good numbers from the Canadian consumer. The ex autos number for June is a surprise while the July preliminary reading is a big surprise, given some soft indications.
The drag in the June report was autos, which fell 2.1%, led by new cars at -2.9%. It's part of the ongoing weight from high interest rates that's also dragging down everything housing related.
Within core retail sales, the +0.4% rise was led by higher sales at food and beverage retailers (+1.2%), which were driven by supermarkets and other grocery retailers (except convenience retailers) (+1.8%). Gains at beer, wine and liquor retailers (+0.4%) and specialty food retailers (+0.5%) were offset by lower sales at convenience retailers and vending machine operators (-1.9%).
The largest decrease in core retail sales in June came from sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument, book, and miscellaneous retailers (-0.8%).
Overall, I can't see this as anything but good news and it should put to bed the idea of a 50 bps cut in September.
Update: CIBC is less optimistic on the advance reading, saying it's special factors "The advance estimate for a 0.6% increase in July sales will have likely been fully accounted for by a bounce back in auto sales as the software issue at dealerships was resolved, and higher goods prices, including for gasoline"