Oct Canada CPI chart
  • Prior was 6.9%
  • CPI m/m +0.7% vs +0.7% expected
  • Prior m/m reading was +0.1%
  • Gasoline prices +17.8% vs +13.2% y/y in prior
  • Gasoline prices +9.2% m/m vs -7.4% prior
  • Food +10.3% vs +10.8% y/y prior
  • Full report

Core measures:

  • BOC core 5.8% vs 6.0% prior
  • BOC core m/m +0.4% vs +0.4% prior
  • Median 4.8% vs 4.7% prior
  • Trim 5.3% vs 5.2% prior
  • Common 6.2% vs 6.0% expected (6.0% prior)

This is a mixed bag but the core numbers are mostly higher and that's the inflation signal for the Bank of Canada. For now, the BOC will be patient in letting some of the hikes pass through but the market is still pricing in a 34% chance of 50 bps rather than 25 on Dec 7.

One of the biggest tailwinds in this survey is the mortgage-cost index, which rose 11.4% y/y, which is the highest since Feb 1991. That highlights how the Bank of Canada is boosting costs for Canadians as it tries to dampen them.