China: obstacles to revive growth through private consumption remain daunting in near term

A piece from the Peterson Institute for International Economics on the prospects for a pick up in Chinese economic activity.

It says that "in the near term":

• the obstacles to revive growth through private consumption remain daunting

But further out it looks more promising:

• when the COVID situation stabilizes and household expectations on income and jobs improve in a few months, households will start to consume more, and private consumption will recover gradually later this year.

The emphasis on private consumption growth in the piece derives from:

• China’s mid-December annual Central Economic Work Conference highlighted increasing private consumption expenditure as a “priority task” for reviving China’s economic growth.

Here is the link to the article, well worth a read:

• Can China revive growth through private consumption?

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This should not come as a surprise, we've been posting on this since the Work conference announced it back in December:

• key takeaway from the Work Conference is that the government wants growth via domestic consumption, and this will be the top priority in 2023

And again:

• PBOC wants to boost domestic demand, expand consumption

And again:

• More on China's priority for the recovery and expansion of domestic consumption