According to the country's National Bureau of Statistics, China's population saw its first population drop since 1961 with a decline of roughly 850,000 to 1.41175 billion at the end of 2022. It could really mark a pivotal turning point in China's long-term outlook with the simplistic way of looking at it being the country's population will start to age faster than it is to "get rich".
I mean, it's not like we haven't seen this coming as China has already abandoned its one-child policy in recent years and also shifted towards focusing on common prosperity now. For the time being, there won't be much impact on China's economy as labour supply still very much exceeds demand. However, this is how things start and Japan is a prime example of that.
The birth rate in China last year was just 6.77 births per 1,000 persons, down from 7.52 births in 2021 - marking the lowest birth rate on record for the country.
For Xi, this could very well be his most challenging issue - that is having to change the mindset of the people and to improve the social and economic policies to make the people happy.
Adam has had some good posts previously cover the whole global demographics issue:
- Everyone is on the wrong side of the world population trade
- The 'second demographic transition' might be the greatest long-term threat to markets
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