There is a pretty clear picture in the early vote in Indiana and Kansas that shows Kamala Harris running 3-4 percentage points better than Biden did in 2020.
With that, we've seen a tick higher in Harris odds on Kalshi to 45% from 42% in the past 30 minutes.
The big caveat here is that these might be early, mail-in votes which skew Democrat. But it's a really consistent theme across virtually all counties in both states.
A warning is that demographics have changed for both candidates in the interim. Last election, we also saw some false and premature signals in this kind of data.
Expect a big wave of further data at the top of the hour.
