The risk-averse mood spurred by hawkish Fed worries continues to percolate in markets with 10-year Treasuries above 1.7%. That's led to selling in commodities currencies and gold. S&P 500 futures are flat.
The economic calendar will offer plenty of reasons to trade today starting with three reports at the bottom of the hour:
- US initial jobless claims
- US trade balance
- Canadian trade balance
The US advance goods trade balance was released in late December and was surprisingly soft but that should be priced in right now. Claims continue to be distorted by holiday. Canadian trade could surprise to the upside but I don't see it as a market mover.
At 10 am ET (1500 GMT) it gets more interesting with the release of:
- Factory orders
- ISM services
Those could rattle the market. The prior ISM services reading of 69.1 is unsustainably high and the consensus only sees a dip to 66.9. I'll take the under. That's the kind of thing that could kick off more risk aversion though it's tough to hit the panic button on a retracement of a chart that looks like this:
