A note from Morgan Stanley, writing in the Financial Times.

The FT is gated but I've dug up this that conveys the message.

  • The GDP Deflator (a broad measure ion inflation) which is the broadest measure of prices in a country, has contracted for two consecutive quarters, and now stands at -1.4%
  • When adjusted for deflation, China's real interest rates are pushed higher
  • "If deflation continues to eat into these, companies will cut wage growth, creating a vicious 'loop' of even weaker aggregate demand and deflationary pressures,"

And goes on to argue that authorities in China need a much more forecefula ppraoch tos stimulus.

More at the link above.

china yuan notes 14 November 2023

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