The great stock market turnaround in August was impressive in many ways but when I take a step back, there was one big question being asked and answered: Is the Fed behind the curve?
Within that question is a set of assumptions about the US economy and if you look at the economic data, there was cause for concern. The ISM services index in June fell to the lowest since 2020, global commodity prices have been falling and US unemployment has been rising.
A big boost for US stocks came on strong retail sales data but when I survey the picture of US data over the past two months, there's no clear trend. What was clear though was corporate America.
Scotia here highlights how rarely 'recession' was mentioned on earnings calls:
"So far we aren’t experiencing a weaker consumer overall," said Walmart's CEO. That was backed up by Target and many others.
For sure, there were some pockets of weakness like McDonald's an anything housing-related but those are looking like outliers. McDonald's has been getting pushback on pricing (and did say there was a strong response to $5 meals) and housing is very rate-sensitive.
What emerges is a picture of a consumer that's picky about pricing but not in a recessionary mindset, at least not yet.
On earnings overall, it was a positive picture, according to Scotia:
The U.S. Q2 reporting season is essentially over with 95% of companies having reported. S&P 500 Q2 EPS is coming in at US$59.86, which is better than the US$58.64 expected at the start of the reporting season. See Exhibit 3. The beat propelled the earnings growth rate up to 11% y/y vs. expectations of 9% when the reporting season started. At the company level, the median earnings beat was 4.4%, which is only slightly below the last two- year average of 4.6%, but above the five-year pre-pandemic average of 3.8%. Harder to manipulate, the top line also exceeded expectations, rising +5.7% y/y, the best reading since the final quarter of 2022, as 60% of companies topped Wall Street forecasts. Lastly, the percentage of sectors reporting a y/y earnings decline was stable at 27% (three reported an EPS decline), but well below levels registered in 2022 when more than half of sectors suffered earnings contraction.
On top of that:
- Wall Street hasn't trimmed earnings more than usual going forward
- Revenue forecasts today are slighly above June levels for both 2024 and 2025
- Few one-time charges, impairments or no-cash expenses, which points to earnings quality
Scotia sums it up nicely: "If a steep US macro downturn has indeed started, it’s not yet showing up in earnings numbers (actual or expected)."