- I'm pretty confident inflation will hit 2% in 2025.
- We can take our foot off the brake if the base case holds.
- It's logical to assume a recovery in consumption.
- Consumer recovery will take a bit longer.
- Structural undershoot of the 2% goal is not a risk now.
- Large economic deterioration is needed for bigger cuts.
- The biggest slowdown in wages is still ahead of us.
- Trade fragmentation will be bad for both the US and Europe.
ECB's Knot