The April Monthly CPI Indicator from Australia is the feature item on the data agenda today. Last month the March data was a bit of a nasty surprise for the RBA, coming in above expectations. The monthly reading is not expected to fall back too much, at around 3.4% y/y.
Any upside surprise to inflation will once again rekindle thoughts about the RBA rate path ahead and the likelihood of delaying rate cuts again. More certianty will come from the quarterly data not due until the end of July (see below).A higher reading should support AUD, at the margin, while a lower reading should do the opposite.
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The monthly CPI data from Australia does not show all components of the CPI, that'll have to wait for the quarterly data release.
- The monthly CPI indicator does, however, provide a timelier indication of inflation using the same data collected for use in the quarterly CPI. The monthly reading includes updated prices for between 62 and 73 per cent of the weight of the quarterly CPI basket, its not the full picture.
The quarterly CPI reading for the April - June quarter is due on Wednesday 31 July 2024.
- This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here.
- The times in the left-most column are GMT.
- The numbers in the right-most column are the 'prior' (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected.
- I’ve noted data for New Zealand and Australia with text as the similarity of the little flags can sometimes be confusing.