- EIA sees 12.76m bpd this year vs 12.56m bpd prior
- Sees 13.09m bpd next year vs 12.85m bpd prior
- Sees 2024 production exit rate at 13.4m bpd
- Lowers 2024 world oil demand forecast by 30,000 bpd, which is a 1.61m bpd increase
- 2023 world oil demand growth unchanged at 1.76 mbpd
- They see brent prices averaging $86 in 2024
- Full report
World oil demand continues to grow, but so does US oil production. In any case, oil has bounced from a $2 loss to just $0.48 despite the poor risk backdrop.
I'm curious of where this US oil output increase will come from with drilling rigs down 15% since December and DUCs exhausted. Here's what the EIA says:
In our August STEO, we now expect total U.S. crude oil production to average 12.8 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2023, an annual average increase of about 0.2 million b/d compared with our July STEO. Our higher production outlook reflects the effect of higher well productivity in recent historical data from the Petroleum Supply Monthly, which we have extended into our current forecast for July and forward through 2023. Our outlook for higher crude oil prices, beginning in July 2023 and continuing into 2024 supports higher production in 2024 because of the lagged effect of prices on rig additions and production