New York Fed
  • Prior -11.2
  • Empire manufacturing for January -32.9 versus -11.2 last month. Estimate -9.0. This is the lowest since May 2020. Eleven percent of respondents reported that conditions had improved over the month, and forty-four percent reported that conditions had worsened
  • new order -31.1 versus -3.6 last month
  • shipments -22.4 versus 5.3 last month
  • Prices Paid 33.0 versus 50.5 last month
  • Prices received 18.8 versus 25.2 last month
  • employment 2.8 versus 14.0 last month
  • average work week remained negative at -10.4 versus -4.5 last month
  • inventories 4.5 versus 3.7 last month
  • delivery time 0.9 versus 1.9 last month
  • unfilled orders -14.3 versus -11.2 last month

looking six months forward

  • the index for future business conditions held steady at 8.0 versus 6.3 last month
  • new orders came in at 10.4 versus 4.9 last month
  • shipments 16.9 versus 8.8
  • prices paid 45.5 versus 55.1
  • prices received 33.9 versus 43.9
  • employment 9.7 versus 15.0
  • average work week 4.5 versus 1.9
  • capital expenditures 22.3 versus 23.4
  • technology spending 17.0 versus 12.1
  • unfilled orders -4.5 versus -3.7
  • delivery time 0.9 versus 1.9
  • inventories 3.6 versus -4.7

The manufacturing index was the lowest since May 2020. New orders, and shipments plunged. Price paid also fell but still remains positive as does prices received. Employment weakened a bit but remains marginally positive. The average work week was negative for the second consecutive month.

When the economy slows from growth that we continue to see in the fourth quarter, the shift from growing to a slower pace of growth can shift the numbers rather quickly. That seems to be what were seeing in this report. Conditions are simply not as good as the prior month.

\Inflation