Overshadowed by all the drama around Russia-Ukraine, there appears to be movement on an Iranian nuclear deal. In fact, Russia's foreign minister even held a call with Iran. Given the overwhelming responsibility on Russia's diplomats at the moment, it's strange he would be having a call with his counterpart in Iran, unless it were important.
Combined with this comment, there's good reason to believe a deal is almost done.
The big question is how much oil can come into the market afterwards. The consensus is about 500k bpd immediately and 500k bpd in 6-8 months.
The second question is how much of that is already priced in?
I don't have answers to that question but anyone who has been paying attention would surely have been pricing in a higher chance of a deal in the past two months. Despite that, oil prices have relentlessly climbed.
However there's the chance of a double headline shocking for oil in the coming week or so: A demobilization for Russia and an Iranian deal. If oil can stay strong through that, the sky is the limit.
Once again, today's dip was bought:
