The pair is down 0.4% today to test waters below the 0.8300 level again. And while it also did so last month, there was no firm break of the key level when we got the monthly close. At least not what one can argue with too much conviction on the charts. And that's been a tough level to really crack for the pair stretching all the way back to December 2016.
Essentially, we've seen the pair mostly trade in between 0.8300 and 0.9300 for well over six years now. But are things starting to change on a break under 0.8300 this time around?
The last time the pair did try a real run below the figure level was all the way back in March 2022. The low then hit 0.8202 but was defended at the 200-month moving average (blue line) at the time.
This time around, there's no such critical support for the pair. At most, buyers can point to the March 2022 low for their final layer of defense. Otherwise, the 0.8300 mark remains the most important level - at least on the monthly chart.
And so from a technical perspective, there is potentially scope for the pair to catch a stronger downside move if sellers can really drive more momentum under 0.8300 in the coming days/weeks. The next key psychological target would arguably be the 0.8000 mark.
In terms of fundamentals, the euro is is facing quite a number of downside factors.
The ECB is still cutting rates at a much quicker pace than the BOE. Meanwhile, the Eurozone economy is suffering a lot more as compared to the UK. And Trump tariffs might just make that outlook much worse. And now, there's the added political uncertainty amid a rise in the far-right movement across Europe.
The mix of everything just isn't going well for the euro and the technical slippery slope here might just push things over the edge towards the end of this year.