This summary of where we are at with European gas is via ANZ. Its pretty bleak:
Norwegian flows started to flow following unplanned outages earlier this week. This should provide some relief to a tight market
Russia’s Nord Stream pipeline to Germany (is) shut for maintenance until next week ... the risk that Russia flows are curbed further remains high.
If that’s the case, the EU has very few options for stabilising its energy supply.
- Nuclear remains curtailed because of aging power stations
- LNG imports are at maximum capacity
- The only option in the short term is coal
In the worst-case scenario that flows in Nord Stream stop completely, gas consumption would need to be cut by 10%. Gas storage levels would fall to zero. This would likely weigh on EU growth. Even considering offsetting fiscal support, a 10% cut in manufacturing activity could reduce GDP by 0.5–1.0% in any one quarter.
