Today is likely the beginning of the end of Justin Trudeau's hold on Canadian federal politics. Polls have been bad for the Prime Minister for many months but they've deteriorated further lately and yesterday he suffered a crushing defeat.
A special election was held in his Liberal Party's stronghold yesterday after the retirement of a long-time party member.
The result was a surprise, with Conservative challenger Don Stewart winning with 42.1% compared to Liberal candidate Leslie Church with 40.5%.
To illustrate what a shift this was, here is the past 30-years of voting in what was one of the Liberal's safest seats in the country:
- 1993 - Liberals +30%
- 1997 - Liberals +30%
- 2000 - Liberals +33%
- 2004 - Liberals +38%
- 2006 - Liberals +25%
- 2008 - Liberals +24%
- 2011 - Liberals +8% (An election when the Liberals won just 34 seats)
- 2015 - Liberals +28%
- 2019 - Liberals +33%
- 2021 - Liberals +23%
The Liberals won 160 of the 338 seats in the House of Commons in the 2021 Canadian election but after this loss, none of those lawmakers can feel safe. Those who still have a shot likely feel their chances would be better with a different Prime Minister and that may put pressure on Trudeau to resign.
The Canadian system isn't like Australia where party members can initiate a leadership spill and power has been centralized in the Prime Minister's office, so it will largely be Trudeau's decision alone. I would only put the odds at around 15% because he's offered no hints at quitting.
The next election isn't scheduled until the autumn of 2025 and an early one is still unlikely but the odds of a leadership change are certainly higher today. I can certainly think of one Liberal Party hopeful who would be interested:
