The testimony is over at 1:04 PM.

What was the market impact from the start to the finish?

  • S&P index up 25.91 points at 4332.18. Trades at 4390.78, up $68.30
  • Gold down $12.60 at $1932.07. Trades at $1918.17, down $13.90
  • crude oil up $2.27 at 108.60. Trades at $108.46, down $0.14
  • bitcoin and $44,199. Trades at $43894, down $205.
  • two year yield or 1.44%. Trades at 1.492%, up 5.2 basis points
  • 10 year yield at 1.794%. Trades at 1.839%, up 4.5 basis points
  • EURUSD at 1.1083. Trades that 1.1101, up 18 pips..
  • GBPUSD at 1.3331. Trades at 1.3359, up 20 pips.
  • USDJPY at 115.41. Trades at 115.60, up 19 pips
  • USDCHF at 0.9216. Trades at 0.9222, up 6pips.
  • USDCAD at 1.2697. Trades at 1.2666.
  • AUDUSD at 0.7263. Trades at 0.7286, up 23 pips, down 33 pips.
  • NZDUSD and 0.6762. Trades at 0.6780, up 18 pips.

Highlights of the Fed Chair comments

  • US economy is very strong. Labor market is extremely tight
  • I do think still appropriate toraise interest rates by 25 basis pointsin March
  • Fed will not finalize balance sheet plan at this meeting.
  • If inflation/growth persists,we would be prepared to move more aggressively with a 50 basis point riseat a meeting or meetings
  • Fed needs to be nimble in light of the war in Ukraine.
  • Inflation is different as coming from goods sector.
  • Main focus Fed has is conducting policy to return US to price stability while preserving the expansion
  • Fed is humble about fact it cannot call with confidence a turn in inflation
  • There would be no direct effects on the US economy from Russian sanctions
  • Price of oil depends on where Ukraine war goes
  • On the balance sheet, it would take something in the range of three years to get to where we want to get to.
  • After we set balance sheet reduction course, we may speed up or slow down, but something in the range of three years.
  • I expect the Fed funds rate to go up in two weeks, and a series of hikes this year, but given Ukrainian situation we will proceed carefully.
  • Neutral rate is somewhere between 2% and 2 1/2%
  • We talk about getting to neutral rate of 2% to 2 1/2%, and it may need to go higher than that
  • Monetary policy works through expectations, rate hikes have already happened in effect and we have to ratify them
  • The increases in housing will be much smaller and largely a function of supply and demand.
  • As we raise interest rates, mortgages will go up and prices will go up more slowly and demand will decline