- Thought quarter point hike this week is a good step
- This moves puts Fed above 5%, but there is a lot of inflation in the economy
- Should not have recession as a base case
- Base case is slow growth, declining inflation
- Today's jobs report again stronger than expected
- Labor market is very tight and will take time to cool
- Regional banks have hasd a couple of issues but represent a small share of US finanical intermediateion
- Sense is that regional banks will do just fine
- Top takeaway from Barr Report is that no amount of regulation will fix bad management
- Fed can still achieve a soft landing.
The comments are the first from a Fed official post the FOMC rate decision and today's employment report. Bullard is thought to be one of the hawks, but to his credit, he was on the tightening and tightening quicker and more early on. That means he has been trading this "trade" for the longest and may be the one, who calls the peak too. It is often assumed that he will be the most hawkish forever. I don't expect that....
- Strong labor market probably means continued consumption, bolsters confidence in continued growth
- Feel can bring inflation down by allowing labor market to get back to normal, not to high unemployment
- Pandemic has put the US back in 80s and 90s style central banking of trying to tamper down inflation
- don't think monetary policy alone will put the US into recession, will take us shock of some sort
- committee thinks it is in the territory of being sufficiently restrictive
- Wall Street seems to be betting heavily on a recession scenario
- The debt ceiling is a must pass vote for Congress
- Given capital exchange-rate rules in China does not look like one could become a reserve currency
- On commercial real estate need to draw a distinction between large downtowns like Manhattan versus smaller places