Will support further cuts in 2025 but pace will depend on inflation progress.
Inflation will continue to make progress towards 2%.
Base effects will improve inflation in 2025.
Recent monthly and short-term data indicates improvement to come.
Although the recent inflation progress has been slow, much of that is due to imputed prices for housing and non-market services that are less reliable guide to underlying price pressures.
Geopolitical conflicts and tariffs could be a source of renewed price pressure.
The economy is overall on a solid footing, nothing suggests labour market will weaken dramatically in coming months.
Central bankers have a broad set of challanges ahead, from aging populations to geopolitical conflicts and challanges to globalization.
Do not expect tariffs to produce persistent inflation and thus are not likely to influence views on appropriate monetary policy.
Long term yields may have more of an inflation premium, but the Fed will fix that.
US deficits may also be driving long yields higher.
Some of the ongoing service price inflation may represent lagged wage increases which should ease.
Tremendous uncertainty around what will happen with tariffs.
Do not think "draconian" tariffs will be implemented.
In the near term, do not think there will be a huge impact on inflation from tariffs.