US PMI SP Oct chart

Survey are some of the best forward-looking indicators and you can see signs of a slowdown all over this report.

Siân Jones, Senior Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said:

“October PMI data signalled a subdued start to the final quarter of 2022, as US manufacturers recorded a renewed and solid drop in new orders. Domestic and foreign demand weakened due to greater hesitancy among clients as prices rose further and amid dollar strength. As such, efforts to clear backlogs of work, rather than new order inflows, drove the latest upturn in production.
“Confidence in the outlook waned as underlying data also highlighted efforts to cut costs and adjust to more subdued demand conditions in the coming months. Input buying fell sharply and resilience in employment stumbled, as the pace of job creation eased to only a marginal rate.
“On a more positive note, input costs rose at the slowest pace in almost two years amid signs of reduced disruption in supply chains. Lower demand for inputs was a contributing factor to this, however. Nevertheless, softer hikes in costs were reflected in a slower uptick in output charges, as firms sought to pass on cost savings where possible to try and boost sales.”