FOMC Dot Plot and Central Tendencies from March 2022

The Dot Plot for March 2022 shows the median rate at the end of 2022 at 1.9% vs 0.9% in December. That is seven hikes in 2022 which is congruent with the market but above expectations from the Fed.

In 2023 the expectations are for 2.8% vs 1.6% median (and 11 of 18 at 1.9%) in December.. They also see 2.8% in 2024.

The Dot Plot in December showed:

The table of the central tendencies from March 2022 now shows:

Summary of central tendencies from March compared to December now shows for 2022:

• GDP lowered to 2.5% to 3.0% from 3.6% to 4.5% in 2022
• Unemployment rate near unchange near unchangedd at 3.4% to 3.6% from 3.4% to 3.7% in 2022
• PCE inflation much higher at 4.1% to 4.7% from 2.2% to 3.0% in 2022
• Core PCE inflation much higher at 3.9% to 4.4% from 2.5% to 3.0% in 2022

In 2023, they see:

• GDP near unchanged at 2.1% to 2.5%
• unemployment rate near unchanged at 3.3% to 3.6%
• PCE inflation higher at 2.3% to 3% from 2.1% to 2.5% in December
• core PCE inflation higher at 2.4% to 3% from 2.1% to 2.4% in December

The chair and the Fed members are turning up the inflation fighting fight.