- Major US indices close little changed on the day
- Crude oil futures settle at $90.38.
- JPMorgan Chase CEO Dimon warns about over confident markets.
- Samsung is reported to be getting $6 to $7 billion for Texas chip manufacturing expansion
- Hamas rejects Israel's most recent cease-fire proposal
- Chicago Fed Pres Goolsbee speaking on radio interview:Economy was on a golden path in 2023
- Israeli PM Netanyahu: A date has been set for an invasion of Rafah
- WH: CIA Director Burns in Cairo and hostage negotiation presented to Hamas. Await response
- European major indices closing mostly higher
- NY Fed inflation expectations: Three-year inflation expectations 2.9% vs 2.7% prior
- Goldman Sachs maintains short EUR/CAD position ahead of ECB meeting
- US March employment trends 112.84 vs 112.29 prior
- Goldman Sachs raises Q1 GDP tracking estimate, sees 0.27% rise in core CPI this week
- Kickstart the FX trading date for April 8 w/a technical look at EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD
- Yellen hectors China about doling out trade subsidies while announcing more for the US
- It's a light economic calendar today but a full astronomical calendar
- The NZD is the strongest and the CHF is the weakest as the NA session begins
- Another new 2024 high for US 10-year yields
The economic calendar and speakers calendar in the US session was light. The NY Fed inflation expectations saw the 1 year measure unchanged at 3.0%, but the 3 year expectations rose to 2.9% to 2.7%. The news didn't really impact forex, but the US rates remained elevated for the entire day.
More specifically, the yields out the curve all rose with the biggest gains in the short end with the 2-year yield trading near at session highs. The 30-year yield is more toward session lows. The 10 year traded to a new 2024 high (high going back to November 2023).
A snapshot of the market currently shows:
- 2-year yield 4.792%, +6.1 basis points
- 5-year yield 4.432%, +6.4 basis points
- 10 year yield 4.421%, +4.4 basis points
- 30-year yield 4.551%, +2.0 basis points
In the forex, as the NY session comes to a close the AUD is the strongest and the CHF is the weakest. The USD is ending marginally lower for the day. At the start of the session it was marginally higher. The US greenback is closing with declines vs the EUR, GBP, CAD, AUD and NZD. It fell -0.40% against the AUD - the largest decline for the USD. The dollar rose vs the JPY and CHF today with the largest rise of 0.44% against the Swiss franc.
Technically,
- For the USDJPY the high price reached a high of 151.938 which was less than 3 pips from the high from 2024 and a new 30 year high. Although sellers leaned, the downside was limited off of high keeping the pair within shouting-distance of that level. The price is currently trading at 151.847 going into the close.
- The GBPUSD stretched higher and in doing so tested it's 100-day MA at 1.2663. Sellers leaned against the MA. There is additional resistance at the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 1.2683 should the price break higher in the new trading day.
- The EURUSD extended higher in the US session reaching a high at 1.0861. In the move higher, the pair extended above the 50% of the March trading range at 1.0852. With the break, the buyers will be looking for more upside momentum the 100 day MA looming at 1.8717.
- The AUDUSD traded higher and lower in the Asian and European session, but pushed to new highs in the US session. The move higher has taken the price above the 100-day MA at 0.65698. Staying above that MA would be the best-case scenario for the pair in the new trading day.
- The USDCHF rose in the Asian and European session, and traded up and down in the US session. However, the price did stay above the 200 and 100-hour MAs between 0.9041 and 0.9046. The best case for the USDCHF is to stay above those MA in the new day, and put more room between those MAs and the price for the pair.
Crude oil today moved lower on hopes for a ceasefire/hostage release in Isreal. A proposal was made to Hamas, but according to sources, they rejected the Israel plan. Crude oil is trading down -$0.30 at $86.50
Bitcoin moved higher and is trading at $71,695 currently.
Gold is trading up $9.03 or 0.39% at 2338.60. Today the precious metal reached a new record level.