- Canada May CPI 2.9% versus 2.6% expected
- US June consumer confidence 100.4 vs 100.0 expected
- Richmond Fed June manufacturing index -10 vs. 2 expected
- Fed's Cook: Current policy is well positioned, attentive to inflation expectations
- Shares of Fedex jump as 2025 guidance lowers capex, highlights cost savings
- Shares of Nvidia surge nearly 7% to lead tech rebound
- US sells 2-year Treasury notes at 4.706% vs 4.706% WI
- Dallas Fed service sector revenue +1.9 vs +6.7 prior
- US May national activity index +0.18 vs. -0.23 prior
Markets:
- Gold down $14 to $2318
- US 10-year yields flat at 4.24%
- WTI crude down 83-cents to $80.78
- S&P 500 up 0.4%, Nasdaq up 1.1%
- GBP leads, CHF lags
Moves across the FX market were minimal as the dollar climbed early only to give most of the move back. The euro fell to 1.0692 but turned around after the European close to finish at 1.0713, still down 20 pips on the day. Cable, AUD and NZD followed the same pattern.
USD/CAD was a mover after the surprisingly hot CPI report but the market reaction may have been telling. The initial move was higher in CAD in a 60 pip move but two-thirds of that quickly faded. I suspect the market is seeing the CPI report as a head-fake, but one that could prevent the BOC from delivering much-needed rate cuts.
USD/JPY continues to probe 160.00 as it fought its way to 159.78 before backing off. It rose to within a couple pips of the barrier earlier this week before backing off on intervention worries. We continue to watch slowly.
Equities remain volatile as tech unwound yesterday's losses but the bond market as been trading in a tight range and today's 2-year sale was right on the screws.
Fed commentary retains the same wait-and-see attitude and market pricing is for 46 bps in cuts this year. Eyes are on Friday's PCE report then will quickly move to next Friday's non-farm payrolls report.
