- ECB still 'hopes' to do a 50 bps hike - report
- Biden: Americans can have confidence that the banking system is safe
- NY Fed: Year-ahead inflation expectations fall to the lowest since May 2021
- Timiraos: Bank crisis calls Fed path into question
- Fed says it won't release the details of borrows under 1-year term loans a year later
- Andrea Maechler to leave for Swiss National Bank
- Eurozone finance ministers: Broad-based fiscal stimulus is not warranted
- US Feb employment trends 118.29 vs 118.14 prior
Markets:
- Gold up $45 to $1913
- US 10-year yields down 15 bps to 3.53%
- WTI crude oil down $2.22 to $74.45
- S&P 500 down 1 point to 3860
- VIX up 2 points to 26.86 (high of 30.81)
- Bitcoin gains 21%
- AUD and JPY lead, USD lags
It was a wild start to the week. Markets initially cheered the Fed banking program to backstop deposits but it began to deteriorate in Europe and that accelerated early in North American trading. Around midday it steadied though as bottom-fishing began and some of the most-beaten-up banks bounced.
In FX, it was a bit more straight forward as the market prices in a less-aggressive Fed. For next week's meeting, the market is almost evenly-split between 25 bps and a hold. For the year-end terminal rate, it's at 3.85% (current rate is 4.50-4.75%).
The peak in optimism and dollar selling came at midday and it saw AUD/USD hit 0.6716 as it erased last week's losses before giving back about 60 pips late.
Cable was more-fortunate as it held nearly all of its +150 pips in gains. That's even with some calling for the end of the BOE hiking cycle after one further 25 bps hike.
USD/JPY fell 170 pips but bounced nearly 100 pips from the early European lows and grinded higher during US trading in a sign of some stabilization in sentiment.
The Canadian dollar trailed commodity currencies as the market prices in 90 bps in cuts by September and oil fell 3%. Commodities were an interesting space as oil sank but copper rallied.
