- US September ISM services 54.9 vs 51.7 expected
- US factory orders for August -0.2% versus 0.0% expected
- US September final S&P Global Services PMI 55.2 vs 55.4 prelim
- Canada S&P Global services PMI falls to six-month low, employment drops
- G7 statement: We unequivocally reiterate our commitment to security of Israel
- Israeli media & Sky New Arabia is repeating that an Israeli response will be within days
- Fed's Goolsbee: Retailers stockpiled ahead of the dockworker strike
- OPEC Sept output fell 390k bpd on Libyan outages - survey
- Biden: US is discussing Israel striking Iran oil facilities
- Italy plans windfall tax on companies to narrow deficit
- September non-farm payrolls preview by the numbers: Beware the seasonal pattern
Markets:
- Gold down $1 to $2656
- WTI crude up $3.74 to $73.84
- US 10-year yields up 6.5 bps to 3.85%
- S&P 500 down 0.2%
- USD leads, GBP lags
The US dollar firmed after the ISM services report rose to the highest since Feb 2023. The one caveat was that the employment metric slipped below 50 and that's ahead of tomorrow's non-farm payrolls report.
The moves were overshadowed by GBP selling after a dovish message from Bailey along with a broader focus on the Middle East. Oil jumped more than 5% after Biden said the US was discussing Israel attacks on Iran's oil infrastructure. That message was misinterpreted (see the post) but the oil gains didn't retrace as it's far-from-clear what Israel will do. But oil positioning has been extremely short so there are nerves.
CAD got little help from crude but did outperform the antipodeans, in part because the buzz from China's stimulus faded in Hong Kong markets.
There wasn't much risk aversion in stock, in part because of some bullish comments from Nvidia helped to fuel the AI trade.
USD/JPY traded mostly sideways in North American trade after yesterday's big rally.
