- US January consumer confidence 114.8 vs 115.0 expected
- JOLTs job openings for December 9.026M vs 8.750M estimate
- ECB's Lagarde: 'We are not there yet' on rate cuts, need more data
- Iraqi group responsible for US attack suspends operations against US military
- ECB’s Nagel: Inflation is absolutely moving in the right direction
- Biden: We do not need a wider war in the Middle East
- Dallas Fed Texas service sector outlook index -9.3 vs -8.8 prior
- ECB's Makhlouf: We are confident in sustainably reaching our 2% target
- Canadian home builder sentiment falls to survey low
Markets:
- Gold up $4 to $2035
- US 10-year yields down 3.2 bps to 4.05%
- WTI crude oil up $1.10 to $77.89
- S&P 500 down 2 points to 4926
- EUR leads, AUD lags but daily FX moves small
It wasn't as dull in the FX market today as it looks from the net changes on the day. The US dollar ripped higher on rising job openings in a sign the labor market could still have some fuel. Some time after the release, there was more of a focus on the falling quits rate and the read-through towards a softening landscape. The 1-year inflation metric in the consumer confidence report also fell to the lowest since 2020.
Cable dropped to 1.2640 from 1.2680 on the data but slowly climbed all the way back and then even higher to 1.2693. Similar stories played out in the commodity currencies and all of them are now above pre-data levels. That was helped along by a reversal higher in oil prices as Biden gets set to retaliate for the US soldiers killed on the weekend.
USD/JPY is one pair that didn't fully reverse, despite falling yields. The pair was trading at 147.11 before the data and jumped to 147.93 afterwards. It's since shed 30 pips but remains well-above the levels before the job openings data. Later we get data on Japanese industrial production and retail sales.
The euro was hit with a few dovish comments but it didn't move the market much. ECB policymakers are clearing the path to rate cuts but don't seem to be in a hurry about it. That's left the market watching data more than words from central bankers.
However it's words from a different central bank that we will be sifting through tomorrow with the Federal Reserve set for its latest decision.
