- FOMC Minutes: Most policymakers noted risk of easing too quickly
- Fed's Barkin: The big picture of US data on inflation and jobs has been remarkable
- Fed's Bowman: The time for lower rates is certainly not now
- EU Consumer Confidence for Feb (Flash) -15.5 vs -15.6 estimate
- BOE's Dhingra: UK consumption remains below pre-pandemic in contrast to US and eurozone
- Canada January new housing price index -0.1% vs 0.0% prior
- US sells 20-year bonds at 4.595% vs 4.562% WI
- ECBs Wunsch: May be too early to get hopes up on rate cuts
Markets:
- Gold up $2 to $2025
- US 10-year yield up 4.2 bps to 4.31%
- WTI crude oil up 85-cents to $77.89
- S&P 500 down 0.1%
- NZD leads, JPY lags
The market didn't have much to chew on today due to the light economic calendar. The early theme was US dollar and yen selling and that lifted EUR/USD up slightly to 1.0820 with USD/JPY up to 150.30. The moves were sluggish but picked up later in the day. The dollar bounced on a particularly soft 20-year Treasury auction. The market was hoping for some buyers to step into the twilight zone of the bond curve but they weren't to be found, leading to a record 3.3 bps tail. That sent the US dollar modestly higher as the rest of the curve bumped up in yield.
Later, the FOMC minutes had some hawkish hints but there was no strong message and that led to a sign of relief. The dollar initially sold off around 10 pips. However -- as is often the pattern with the minutes -- it recovered that loss over the following hour.
Oil turned around intraday as we await the private inventory numbers but crude didn't offer much of a boost to the loonie, nor did the 12% jump in natural gas prices.
Overall, it was a quiet day in FX but tomorrow's initial jobless claims and S&P Global PMIs should liven things up.
