- ISM services for July 51.4 vs 51.0 expected
- US final July S&P Global services PMI 55.0 vs 56.0 prelim
- Fed's Goolsbee: Jobs numbers are weaker but it's not looking yet like a recession
- Eyes on Iran with a response expected today
- What's priced in for the Fed after the latest turmoil
Markets:
- S&P 500 down 3.0%
- Nasdaq down 3.4%
- US 10-year yields down 1.1 bps to 3.78%
- Gold down $36 to $2407
- WTI crude oil up 22-cens to $73.77
- JPY leads, NZD lags
It was a bruising day for North American markets but it could have been much worse after the day kicked off with a record 12% decline in Japanese stocks.
The market was in the full-on fetal position as US traders rolled in with megacap tech stocks looking like they would fall more than 10% and USD/JPY flirting with 142.00. The peak of the rout in most assets was around 8:45 am ET as US 2-year yields fell to 3.65%, down more than 25 bps on the day and all kinds of talk about an emergency rate cut.
There was no particular headline that stopped the bleeding. On CNBC, the Fed's Goolsbee did a good job of putting the focus back on the economy and showing steady hand. That was followed by an ISM services report that was a bit better than expected, with particularly strong new orders.
All that emphasized that the underlying economy is still ok and while the Fed might be behind the curve, it's not time to panic. Equities opened at the ultimate lows of the day and dip buyers waded in through the European close. Selling leaked in as the afternoon wore on but the early lows were never challenged.
The FX market provided one of the earliest hints of better sentiment as AUD/USD quickly rebounded from an early spike lower and then rose back to flat on the day near 0.6500.
The euro briefly rose above 1.10 on broad US dollar selling as Fed cuts were priced in but it later backed off by 40 pips as the market cooled its Fed view.
The consensus on the market rout is that it was a combination of:
- Yen carry trade unwind
- AI hype going too far in big tech
- The Fed behind the curve
I'm on board with all that but when you add it up, this is still a huge move. We will need to see real signs of a recession from here.
See also: The inevitable boom-bust: Why today's market structure amplifies financial market moves
