- Biden: Sanctions aim to maximize long-term impact on Russia
- Boris Johnson outlines new sanctions on Russia
- Putin press secretary says Putin ready to talk with Zelensky; outlines demands
- Ukranian official says forces have recaptured Hostomel airfield
- ECB's Holzmann says Ukraine conflict may delay stimulus exit
- US oil-led reserves release could be 60-70 million barrels - report
- RBNZ's Orr: By gettin ahead of inflation quickly, we aim to prevent higher rates later
- US initial jobs claims 232K versus 235K estimate
- US January new home sales 801K vs 806K expected
- US Q4 GDP second estimate +7.0% vs +7.0% expected
- US weekly EIA oil inventories +4515K vs +442K expected
- Fed's Mester: Unfolding situation in Ukraine will be a consideration
- Fed's Bostic: I am very open to more than 3 Fed rate hikes this year
- ECB's Schnabel didn't get the dovish memo
- Lagarde and EU officials to hold press conference Friday
- SEC probes Elon Musk and his brother for insider trading
Markets:
- Gold down $10 to $1898
- WTI crude oil up 98-cents to $93.07
- US 10-year yields down 1 bps to 1.965%
- S&P 500 up 63 points to 4288
- JPY leads, CAD lags
It was a harrowing day in the world and global markets. Intense fear and a flight to safety 18 hours ago turned into risk taking later in the day as sanctions were announced.
The market was fearful of cutting off Russian commodity exports and sparking global shortages and inflation. As the US and UK sanctions were announced, it became clear that wouldn't be the case. Russia's banks and some oligarchs were targeted but nothing that will materially slow the global economy.
At the same time, a pair of ECB officials -- including a hawk -- indicated that they would be likely to delay ending QE until year end (rather than Sept). That set the stage for a dovish-lean in markets and tech stocks rallied.
As sad as it is, this is all the support that Ukraine is getting. They'll be left to fight off Russia alone and while the rest of the world continues to buy Russian exports.
How the battle goes could determine what comes next in a number of markets. At this point, a short war or some kind of negotiated peace would be ideal. We also await the Russian sanctions response, which could include it holding back supplies of exports; so that remains a risk.
Notably, the most-extreme FX moves were into the London fix and we saw turnarounds afterwards. Keep an eye on the clock in the day ahead for similar moves.
