- US July core PCE inflation +4.2% y/y vs +4.2% expected
- US initial jobless claims w.e. 26 August 228K vs 235K expected
- ECB's DeGuindos: Latest date points to deceleration in Q3 and probably Q4
- Bitcoin falls 4% as SEC delays decisions on spot ETFs
- Russia's Novak says they will be announcing main parameters of OPEC+ deal next week
- OPEC August output rose 220k bpd led by Iran - survey
- EIA weekly natural gas inventories +32 bcf vs +25 bcf expected
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow 5.6% vs 5.9% prior
- Fed's Collins doesn't touch on monetary policy in speech
- Canada June average weekly earnings +3.61% vs +3.61% prior
- Canada Q2 current account -$6.63 billion vs -$11.2 billion expected
- Non-farm payrolls preview: Why August jobs are likely to disappoint
Markets:
- WTI crude up $1.95 to $83.58
- US 10-year yields down 0.1 bps to 4.11%
- Gold down $3 to $1939
- S&P 500 down 0.1%
- JPY leads, EUR lags
Coming into the session, eyes were on the euro after the ECB's Schnabel highlighted the slowing eurozone economy. Those comments were later echoed by DeGuindos and that led to a repricing lower in the odds of an ECB rate along with a slump in the euro. The selling largely wrapped up by the end of European trading wit ha fall to 1.0836 and it was sideways from there.
In US trading, the market wasn't quite sure what to do with the PCE and claims data as it was largely in-line with estimates. Ultimately, month-end flows probably outweighed the data and some dollar selling ensued. That could also reflect angst ahead of non-farm payrolls (and there's good reason to worry about a miss).
The oil market was in focus as crude rose for the sixth day and Russia's Novak highlighted an OPEC+ decision coming up next week. Crude was choppy but ultimately rose $2 and that weighed on USD/CAD, which fell for a third day as it returns to 1.3500.
Cable was in focus in European trading as BOE chief economist Hew Pill said further hikes might not be necessary. That led to some early selling but it stabilized near 1.2670 and chopped sideways from there.
The day ahead is a big one as the calendar turns and non-farm payrolls lads. Summer vacation is over.
