- US May durable goods orders +0.1% vs -0.1% expected
- US Q1 final GDP +1.4% vs +1.3% expected
- US initial jobless claims 233K vs. 236K expected
- US May goods trade balance (advance) -100.62B vs. -97.95B prior
- US May wholesale inventories +0.6% vs +0.1% prior
- US sells 7-year notes at 4.276% vs 4.279% WI
- Fed's Bostic: Sees a cut this year and 4 cuts in 2025
- US May pending home sales -2.1% vs +2.5% expected
- Former BOE MPC member Saunders sees cut in August and cash rate to 3.5% at end-2025
- US pharmacy giant offers up a big warning on the US consumer
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow 2.7% vs 3.0% prior
- June US KC Fed manufacturing index -11 vs -1 prior
Markets:
- Gold up $28 to $2326
- US 10-year yields down 3.1 bps to 4.28%
- WTI crude up 96-cents to $81.86
- S&P 500 up 0.1%
- EUR leads, CHF lags
We were hit with five US economic data releases at the same time early in New York trade on Thursday and that was a handful to sort through. The dollar dipped around 15 pips on the news as it was mixed but higher continuing claims and weaker core durable goods got attention. Weaker trade balance numbers also weighed on GDP estimates, including the Atlanta Fed tracker.
The dollar didn't stay down for long through as it slowly recouped the losses and then chopped sideways. That left FX pairs around where there started US trading despite modestly lower Treasury yields and another good auction.
The euro was a standout performer, rising as high as 1.0726 before fading back to the figure. Cable bounced from a six-week low but not much as it finished up 22 pips on the day.
AUD was flat for the third day as the battle between a potential rate hike and a global cyclical slowdown plays to a standstill.
Eyes remain fixed on USD/JPY as some jitters weighed in Asia but the bidders arrived later, leading to a flat finish. It wasn't able to break yesterday's high though. The PCE report or the turn of the month could clear the way but traders may also grow weary of holding longs into the weekend with the possibility of the MoF trying to flush the pair at the open on Sunday.
