- NAHB Sept US housing market index 45 vs 50 expected
- Canada August producer price index +1.3% m/m vs +0.5% expected
- EIA sees US shale oil production down about 41k bpd in October
- The Fed will need to dial down its 2023 core inflation forecast this week
- Goldman Sachs predicts BOE hikes by 25bps this week, sees stable EUR/GBP
- Yellen: The US is watching oil prices very closely
Markets:
- Gold up $10 to $1933
- WTI crude up 69-cents to $90.72
- US 10-year yields down 1.1 bps to 4.31%
- S&P 500 up 2 points to 4452
- EUR leads, GBP lags
The euro made some headway today as eurozone yields closed in on the highs of the year. The market has been undecided on European debt since the ECB decision but is now pushing down prices on signs that Germany may subsidize industrial energy and Italy will spend more. That helped to push up the euro by 30 pips in a day that struggled to find a theme.
US bonds got some attention at the Asia open after some pops in yield that were largely misquotes. At the end of the day, front end yields finished 3 bps higher but the long end fell. That creates a deeper inversion that speaks to 'higher for longer' and another day of oil prices gains might have played into that.
Rates certainly were a factor in the unexpected drop in the NAHB home builder index but the broader market took little notice.
Canadian PPI numbers were a bit hot and the loonie rose to a one-month high but that was more about better sentiment about US and China growth than about what's happening in the country, as I told Reuters. Tomorrow we get the latest Canadian CPI data and that should be a market mover.
USD/JPY traded in a range for the day and finished at the low end of it as stocks gave back most of their gains. Cable wraps up the day unchanged.
