- US November retail sales control group +0.4% vs +0.4% expected
- Canada CPI for November 0.0% versus 0.1% estimate
- NAHB December US housing market index 46 vs 47 expected
- US November industrial production -0.1% vs +0.3% expected
- US treasury sells $13B of 20 year bonds at a high yield of 4.686%
- Honda and Nissan to begin merger talks
- New Zealand Q4 consumer confidence 97.5 vs 90.8
- New Zealand GDT dairy price index -2.8%
- Canadian population growth slowed +0.4% in Q3
- Canada November new housing price index +0.1% vs -0.4% prior
Markets:
- Gold down $9 to $2643
- US 10-year yields flat at 4.39%
- WTI crude oil down 55-cents to $70.16
- S&P 500 down 0.4%
- DJIA declines for ninth-straight day, worst streak since 1978
- JPY leads, AUD lags
It was tough to pin down what was behind the various moves in the market today. We're counting down towards year-end but also towards tomorrow's Fed decision and the BOJ decision shortly atfterwards. Those events are all inspiring flows but will be the final big tradeable events of the year.
Today's retail sales number was solid but didn't show the acceleration that some hoped for. Auto sales were surprisingly strong, likely on lower rates and discounting but restaurant sales were soft in something of a warning sign on the consumer. Still, the way the calendar in November fell and the fallout from the hurricanes in the prior month (particularly on auto sales) made it a tough month to interpret and the US dollar didn't move much on the release.
In Canada, the CPI numbers was a touch softer on the headline and that contributed to a fall in the loonie to a four-year low. That said, the Australian dollar underperformed the loonie so I don't think there was a big domestic dynamic involved, even with the political mess unfolding.
USD/JPY was lower despite flat yields. There was some risk aversion involved in that as many in the market are highlighting some red flags around sentiment and breadth. The Dow fell for the ninth straight day and the Mag 7 have been doing some major heavy lifting.
The euro and the pound moved in opposite directions with some modest optimism on the UK economy continuing to emerge.
