- Australia has a new Reserve Bank of Australia Governor today - Bullock replaces Lowe
- Japan's next CPI data will show core inflation above target for the 17th straight month
- China's Air passenger numbers in August are +98% y/y
- US Auto Workers will strike at 3 US, GM, Ford, Stellantis factories
- China August Industrial Production 4.5% y/y (expected 3.9%) & Retail sales 4.6% (exp 3%)
- Another rate cut from the People's Bank of China, 14 day reverse repo to 1.95% from 2.15%
- China August new home prices -0.3% m/m (prior month -0.2%)
- People's Bank of China set MLF rate at 2.5% (expected 2.5%, prior 2.5%)
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1786 (vs. estimate at 7.2849)
- Chinese state-linked developer Sino-Ocean has suspended payment on all its offshore debts
- Goldman Sachs on the ECB interest rate hike, rates will be unchanged for next 12 months
- Brent oil - JP Morgan on the price jump - clearly a supply shock
- Bank of America expect the US to avoid a government shutdown, but its close to 50% chance
- New Zealand manufacturing PMI for August 46.1 (prior 46.3)
- EU to probe China EV subsidies. China retaliates, extends anti-subsidy duties on EU import
- UBS on the European Central Bank rate hike - focused on the wrong thing
- Citi is forecasting a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate hike in November
- JP Morgan raise their forecasts for iron ore citing 'resilient' China
- Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Euro falls to the lowest since March after ECB hike
- Trade ideas thread - Friday, 15 September 2023
China’s August economic activity data was published today with beats across the board. The real economy has been showing signs of ‘green shoots’, even as the property sector sinks deeper into distress. We had more or this today with the news that Chinese state-linked developer Sino-Ocean had suspended payment on all its offshore debts. Up until recently the firm had been viewed as among the few developers capable of weathering the property sector’s debt crisis. Earlier this week its share price dropped to a then record low. That decline extended today.
AUD/USD shrugged off the property secotr woes in China and responded instead to the better economic data. AUD/USD is near its session high above 0.6460 as I post. NZD/USD is higher also.
USD/CAD is little net changed on the session. USD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD are also little changed. Gold has staged a rally and is trading just a few dollars short of US$1920.
There was little other data or news of note. The US Auto Workers Union say they will begin a strike at 3 plants in the US, at a GM, Ford, and Stellantis (Fiat Chrysler / PSA Group) factory. It’ll begin at begin at midnight unless there is some last minute deal reached.
From the People’s Bank of China today we had the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) setting, at an unchanged rate of 2.5%. 400bn yuan of MLF matured, 519bn was injected for a net +119bn yuan. The PBOC also added funds via 7-day and 14-day reverse repos in open market operations. It was the first 14-day RR in many months, at a rate of 1.95% from 2.15% previously.
