- There are 7 speakers from the US Federal Reserve coming up Thursday - Powell the highlight
- ECB's Valimaki speaking on digital euro Thursday, 19 October 2023
- Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks Thursday - to tilt hawkish
- JP Morgan warns that if the Fed cuts rates it'll be for the wrong reasons, stocks to fall
- AUD/USD dripping lower still after mixed jobs report
- China new home prices for September -0.2% m/m (prior -0.3%) and -0.1% y/y (prior -0.1%)
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1795 (vs. estimate at 7.3226)
- Australia September Jobs +6.7K (vs. +20K expected) & Jobless rate 3.6% (vs. 3.7% exp)
- PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.3226 – Reuters estimate
- JP Morgan says "Cash is a trap"
- Japan September exports +4.3% y/y (expected +3.1%) Imports -16.3% y/y (expected -12.9%)
- Former BOJ board member: Bank may scrap negative interest rates by the end of this year
- The US has officialy eased some restrictions on Venezuela's oil, gas & gold sectors
- USD/JPY nudging 150, Rabobank expect "USD strength will dominate in the coming month"
- ICYMI - SEC's Gensler says still considering Bitcoin ETF proposals
- Headwinds seen for GBP, will be weaker than EUR in the year ahead
- US President Biden to address the nation on Thursday at 8pm US Eastern time
- Biden said Egypt’s president has agreed to open a border crossing into Gaza for 20 trucks
- UK Times: Biden gives Israel ‘private backing’ to invade Gaza
- Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 18 Oct: Surging rates continue to pressure markets
- The Fed will release its October 2023 Financial Stability Report on Friday at 1600 US ET
- Trade ideas thread - Thursday, 19 October 2023
- Nasdaq falls 1.5% to a session low. Eyes on Tesla and Netflix
The Australian September Labour Market report showed a disappointing result on jobs created for the month but a drop in the unemployment rate from 3.7% in August to 3.6% (lower participation the key to this). Full-time jobs fell by nearly 40 thousand, while part-time increased by 46.5 thousand. Hours worked fell, but so did underemployment and underutilisation. Full-time jobs are sharply lower from June, but still up on the year. It does seem clear, however, that the post-lock downs full-time hiring surge is over. Given the low jobless rate its difficult to argue that the labour market is weak. Indeed at 3.6% unemployment, the Reserve Bank of Australia is going to continue to assess the labour market as tight. Anecdotal comments from employers support this take. But, I think its fair to call this report, at least, mixed.
AUD/USD dribbled lower on the day. NZD/USD followed suit as did CAD (USD/CAD higher) and GBP/USD to a lesser extent. Ranges have not been large with many in the timezone content to wait it out until Federal Reserve Chair Powell speaks later today (at midday US Eastern time).
Also on the data front, Japanese exports jumped in September. Japan’s Ministry of Finance noted that exports recorded the largest value ever. A weak yen obviously played a role in this.
ps. Check out the post on former Bank of Japan policy board member Sakurai offering up his opinion that the BOJ may scrap negative interest rates by the end of this year. This was not breaking news (opinion), but is worth tasking note of.
We had Chinese house price data for September. New home prices fell m/m and y/y. Again. I did notice that Chinese media painted a brighter picture, teasing out the data to read that the sales price of second-hand homes in first-tier Chinese cities increased for the first time in September, up 0.2% month-on-month, after falling for four consecutive months. A tentative green shoot for the property sector, and a welcome one.
Asian equity markets fell, taking a cue from the big drops on Wall Street:
Japan’s Nikkei 225 -1.9%
China’s Shanghai Composite -1%
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng -1.9%
South Korea’s KOSPI -1.9%
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 -1.6%
